No. 03 · The observatory
What OpenAI's AI math means for your business
OpenAI's 372 math result families, read for what they mean for your business.
- Status
- Open
- Read
- 372 result families, 719 manuscripts
- Snapshot
- openai/math at fd4aeeb, 7 Oct 2026
- Cost
- $0.038 classifier, TypeSafe Jev

Six findings
Tap one to see the proofThe AI proved 372 families of results, such as "Y is impossible". Each has a plain-English card.
Chapter 1 →40 of 372The theorems themselves rarely touch business. Only 40 of 372 families have any pathway.
Chapter 1 →2x–130xOur estimate: a checked answer costs 2 to 130 times less than a human paper.
Chapter 2 →0.7%The same kind of AI engine recovers 0.7% of Google's worldwide compute. Google now sells it.
Chapter 2 →56%Checking already costs more than generating. It takes about 56% of all-in cost in our mid case.
Chapter 3 →78% vs 14%Machines check 78% of combinatorics families but 14% of algebraic geometry. Checkable fields move first.
Chapter 4 →On 2026-10-06, OpenAI published 372 math results from an unreleased model. What do they mean for your business?
We answer six questions in order. Each chapter makes one claim and gives you one chart to explore.
What did OpenAI release?
Ignore any single theorem. Price the machine that wrote them.
OpenAI did not ship 372 products. It cut the price of a checked answer.
On 2026-10-06, OpenAI posed about 4,000 open math problems to an unreleased model.
It kept 719 manuscripts in 372 result families, after about three hours of thinking each.
OpenAI posed about 4,000 problems and kept 372 results
Problems posed, result families kept, and families with a full Lean check. Snapshot 7 Oct 2026.
- Problems posed
- Families kept
- Fully Lean-checked
How to readEach bar is one stage. Longer bars mean more items.
NoteOpenAI never defined its significance filter or published failure counts.
Sourceopenai/math README and lean/formalization.yaml, commit fd4aeeb
Few of the answers matter to business. The falling cost of producing them does.
What did the AI prove?
Use the 12 proven limits in vendor diligence. Build nothing on one theorem.
332 of the 372 results are pure math with no buyer. 40 touch business.
Each result is a proof. Some say "X is always true". Others say "Y is impossible".
Most of the 372 results have no business buyer
One square per result family. Colour the grid by kind, check status or sector.
- Pure math, 332
- Proven limit, 12
- Faster on paper, 10
- Confirmation, 10
- Indirect use, 8
How to readSwitch the colour. Tap a legend entry to filter. Tap a square to read its card.
NoteLabels are ours, audited against 41 hand codes. Sectors follow GICS, one per result.
SourceOur labels in hanselhansel/openai-math-atlas, data/cards.json
- Ultraflat real Littlewood polynomials
Radar and communications code designers care: binary codes with very low self-interference exist at every large length, so the long-held ceiling on code quality is false, though usable explicit codes are not yet given.
- Bounded-distortion $L_1$ embeddings of planar and bounded-treewidth graphs
Network and chip-layout partitioning tools on planar or tree-like networks gain a theoretical constant-factor guarantee, but constants are likely large and heuristics already dominate.
- Subpolynomial dimension reduction in $L_p$
Similarity-search and data-compression researchers gain a possibility proof for non-Euclidean dimension reduction, but no practical algorithm follows yet.
- The Euclidean Steinitz--Bergstr\"om conjecture
Designers of balanced experiments use vector-balancing ideas like this, but this is an existence bound with no new deployed method.
- The sharp distortion of edit distance into $\ell_1$
Search and genomics engineers learn that edit-distance sketches built this way cannot beat a known distortion, so R&D should use other approaches.
- The Unique Games Conjecture and optimal approximation thresholds
Optimization software and quantum-optimization vendors face a firm ceiling: no efficient classical method can improve worst-case guarantees for Max-Cut and related problems unless P=NP, so anyone can check claims of better general guarantees against it.
- Quasipolynomial algorithms for mean-payoff, stochastic and parity games
Formal-verification and controller-synthesis tool makers get better worst-case guarantees, though existing solvers already handle practical instances.
- Matrix multiplication with exponent at most $9/4$
AI and scientific computing spend heavily on matrix multiplication, but such asymptotic methods have impractical constants, so hardware vendors and libraries will not change soon.
- Optimal-order randomized $k$-server on arbitrary metrics
Dispatch and caching designers get an optimal-order worst-case guarantee, but practical systems use tuned heuristics and gains are uncertain.
- One-sample matroid prophet inequalities against an almighty adversary
Online marketplace and ad-allocation designers get robust posted-price style guarantees from minimal data, though the authors claim no efficient implementation.
- Approximate counting and the perfect-matching entropy conjecture
Statistical physics and chemistry modelling that counts pairings (dimer models) gain a guaranteed method, though practical speed is unproven.
- Sampling and counting contingency tables with arbitrary margins
Statisticians running exact tests on contingency tables (clinical trials, census disclosure control, ecology) could replace heuristic Markov chain samplers with guaranteed ones, if the polynomial is practical.
- Uniform sparsest cut: hardness and semidefinite gaps
Graph-partitioning tools for chip layout and clustering learn that no constant-factor worst-case guarantee is possible, confirming reliance on heuristics.
- Unbounded bin-packing gaps and the modified integer round-up conjecture
Cutting-stock and packing optimizers that treat the LP bound plus one as essentially tight learn this can fail, though practical instances likely still behave well.
- Almost-linear-time exact matching in general graphs
Assignment and pairing workloads gain a near-optimal theoretical method, but almost-linear-time graph algorithms so far carry large hidden costs.
- Almost-linear expected-time approximation of edit distance
Genomics and text-comparison tools could compare long strings faster, but the hidden overheads mean current heuristics stay ahead for now.
- Superpolynomial lower bounds and quasipolynomial reconstruction from deletion traces
DNA data storage and other deletion-prone storage designers learn that raw reconstruction is costly in the worst case, pushing them toward coding schemes.
- The approximation threshold for metric $k$-median
Facility-location and clustering tool builders learn the exact worst-case limit, so further guarantee-chasing stops; practice still relies on local search.
- A factor-two approximation for shortest common superstring
Genome assembly motivated this problem, but modern assemblers use different methods, so the impact stays limited.
- Polynomial mixing of graph switches with prescribed degrees
Network analysts who already use edge-swap null models get a guarantee for what they assume; workflows do not change.
- Subpolynomial queries for log-concave sampling
Developers of Bayesian inference and sampling tools may borrow the technique later, but only under idealized assumptions about the target distribution.
- Permanence for weakly reversible reaction networks
Systems-biology and chemical modelers get confirmation that such models never drive species to extinction or blow-up; practice already assumes it.
- Deterministic construction of strong thin spanning trees
Routing optimization researchers may use the technique for asymmetric traveling-salesman approximations, but commercial solvers rely on heuristics and will not change soon.
- Bounded-degree coboundary expanders in every dimension
Quantum error-correcting code designers use such structures as ingredients, so this may feed future code constructions, not current products.
- Deterministic nonbipartite Ramanujan graphs in every fixed degree
Designers of data-center topologies and expander-based codes may cite it, but random or existing constructions already serve them well.
- The circulant Hadamard conjecture
Radar and spread-spectrum engineers already assumed no longer Barker code exists; this makes it a proven limit, so searches can stop.
- Optimal logarithmic mixing of the Thorp shuffle
Designers of format-preserving encryption (e.g. for card numbers) that build ciphers from the Thorp shuffle could justify fewer rounds, making such schemes cheaper.
- The two-dimensional gapped area law
Groups simulating quantum materials with tensor networks get a guarantee for methods they already use, but no workflow changes now.
- Exactly three mutually unbiased bases in dimension six
Designers of quantum key distribution and tomography schemes in dimension six learn a hard limit on measurement sets, a niche constraint.
- The Laughlin gap and stability under scalar disorder
Topological quantum computing efforts relying on fractional quantum Hall states get rigorous support for robustness, far from any product.
- The entropy photon-number inequality
Optical and quantum communication theorists get exact capacity limits for some noisy light channels; deployed systems are far from these limits.
- QMA-hardness of continuum Coulomb energy
Confirms what computational chemistry already assumes: exact worst-case molecular energies are intractable, so approximate methods remain the business.
- The classical capacity of generalized amplitude damping
Quantum communication designers get an exact capacity figure for a common noise model, relevant only once quantum links carry data.
- Threshold repetition for entangled games
Underpins security proofs for device-independent quantum cryptography and verification, which are still pre-commercial.
- Failure of Kohn--Sham ensemble representation
Shows a formal assumption behind DFT software used in chemistry and materials fails in some cases, though practical DFT results stay the same.
- QAOA optimality for the SK model
Quantum optimization vendors get a proof QAOA can work in principle on a benchmark, but useful hardware is years away.
- Global smoothness for relativistic Vlasov--Maxwell
Plasma and fusion simulation codes already assume the model is well posed; this confirms it without changing any code.
- Kinetic limits and fluctuations over the Boltzmann lifespan
Rarefied-gas simulation in aerospace already uses the Boltzmann equation; this confirms its basis without changing practice.
- Joint metric and connection recovery from one boundary patch
Electrical impedance imaging developers learn a hard limit: they cannot always recover rough tissue conductivities, though devices already use regularization.
- Sharp one-third stability of optimal transport maps
Machine learning methods using transport maps learn a sharp limit on their stability, a constraint for error guarantees rather than products.
Five kinds, one example each:
- Pure math, 332. Family 001 proves Milne's conjecture. No product or price depends on it.
- Proven limits, 12. Family 102 shows fast Max-Cut methods cannot improve, unless P=NP.
- Faster on paper, 10. Family 107 speeds up matrix multiplication. Huge hidden constants keep it off chips.
- Confirmations, 10. Family 149 proves chemical reaction models behave as chemists already assume.
- Indirect uses, 8. Family 115 could give trial statisticians guaranteed samplers. It is the one direct result.
Lean, a program that checks proofs line by line, fully checks 191 families.
Information technology absorbs 17 of the 40. Industrials take 8 and health care 7.
The proven limits make a diligence tool. A vendor promising guaranteed Max-Cut gains contradicts a theorem.
Five deep dives cover these families in detail:
- Proven limits. Ceilings for optimisation and quantum-optimisation claims.
- Faster on paper. Why published speedups rarely cut your bill.
- Security. What the release means for your security roadmap.
- Operations. The few results that touch real operations.
- Famous but irrelevant. Why fame does not equal business value.
What changed for business?
Reprice your backlog of questions once too expensive to investigate.
A checked, research-grade answer now costs about 28 times less than a human paper.
OpenAI published no dollars, prompts or failure counts. So we built costs from list prices and pay data.
A checked answer costs a fraction of a human paper
Our cost per kept result, in US dollars. Move the sliders to test our assumptions.
- AI compute
- Expert checking
- Human research paper
Mid case: AI $4,372 all-in ($1,920 compute, $2,452 checking). A human research paper costs $124,000. That is 28 times less, and checking takes 56% of the AI cost.
compute = pro_hours / 3 * unit_cost
checking = vet_hours * 1.94 * 79
ai = compute + checking
ratio = human_paper / ai
checking_share = checking / ai
How to readDrag the sliders to test our costs. Then enter what your answer is worth.
NoteOur estimate. OpenAI published no dollars, prompts or failure counts.
SourceOur arithmetic from OpenAI API prices, BLS pay data and AMS publication rates
Our mid case puts a kept result near $4,400 all-in. A human paper costs about $124,000.
Drag every slider to its worst case. AI still costs about half as much.
Now enter your answer's value and odds of success. The calculator says whether search pays.
Checking, not computing, takes 56% of the mid-case cost. Chapter 3 follows that thread.
The hardest problems still cost millions. At the frontier, AI buys speed rather than savings.
The same kind of engine already makes money at Google.
Google DeepMind's AlphaEvolve runs a similar loop. An AI writes code, and a scorer grades each try.
The same kind of AI search already pays off on company problems
Reported gains from Google's AlphaEvolve, inside Google and at Google Cloud customers, 2025 to 2026.
- Reported gain
How to readBars show the reported percentage gain. Rows without a bar report a multiple or no figure.
NoteGoogle and its customers report these gains. No independent audit exists.
SourceGoogle DeepMind, 14 May 2025 and 7 May 2026; Google Cloud, 9 Jul 2026
Its scheduler recovers 0.7% of Google's worldwide compute. We value that at $0.4B to $1.3B a year.
Since 2026-07-09, any firm can rent AlphaEvolve on Google Cloud with its own scorer.
Past math took a median 8 years to reach a product. With a coded scorer, software gains land in months.
Past math took about 8 years to reach a first product
Years from result to first commercial use, 23 historical cases with both dates stated.
- Result to first use
How to readEach line runs from the result year to first commercial use.
NoteMedian 8 years. Cases without both years are left out.
SourceOur history set of 38 cases, framework-test.md
Wins stay rare. Expect 1 in 5 to 1 in 10 well-specified problems to yield a gain.
Where does the value move?
Find the scarce input you own: the scorer, the check or the customer.
Cheap answers move value to whoever owns the scorer, the check or the customer.
Knowledge pays when a decision's value beats three costs: finding, trusting and deploying the answer.
The release slashes the cost of finding, but only where a machine scores answers.
So value moves to scorers, to checkers and to owners of customers and data.
Cheap answers move value to scorers, checkers and data owners
Six causal chains, each walked from first to third order, with who should act.
- A: strong evidence
- B: medium
- C: hypothesis
How to readPick a chain and step through each order. Share any chain as its own card.
NoteConfidence multiplies along a chain. Third-order claims are hypotheses.
SourceFindings memo v2 and six research lanes, accessed 11 Oct 2026
The scorer becomes the moat
| Order | Confidence | What happens | Your move | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A | Search gets cheap: a $1,300 agent beat 804 humans | Founders: treat search alone as no moat. | 90% |
| 2 | B | Value moves to simulators, twins, telemetry and truth sets | Operators: fund evaluators before buying AI tools. | 63% |
| 3 | B | Incumbents with telemetry compound; scorer-less startups get squeezed | Investors: price simulation and twin assets up. | 44% |
Counter: Most business problems lack a coded scorer.
The cheapest discovery is the least protectable
| Order | Confidence | What happens | Your move | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A | 719 dated manuscripts; a patent costs $10,000+ to file | Founders: assume rivals publish faster than you can file. | 90% |
| 2 | B | Autonomous output may have no lawful inventor | Operators: log the human's specific contribution in AI-assisted R&D. | 63% |
| 3 | B | Secrets get rediscovered; moats move to speed and data | Investors: rerun an AI search on a target's patents before pricing them. | 44% |
Counter: US patents gained value in 2026 as IPR institution fell.
The supplier becomes the competitor
| Order | Confidence | What happens | Your move | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A | Labs can aim 10,000 agents at any public problem | Founders: assume a lab can attack your public technical target. | 90% |
| 2 | B | Public technical leads stop being moats; prompts leak signal | Operators: put R&D prompts under zero-retention terms. | 63% |
| 3 | B | Labs take outcome-linked deals with data-rich problem owners | Investors: underwrite data and regulatory access over model access. | 44% |
Counter: Kevin Weil said royalty deals are not something OpenAI does today.
Trust becomes the product
| Order | Confidence | What happens | Your move | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B | Checking costs about 56% of all-in cost | Founders: budget checking from day one. | 70% |
| 2 | A | Checking becomes paid: Lean work at $170-200 an hour | Operators: add a verification gate to AI-derived technical work. | 63% |
| 3 | C | Certifying what a spec means captures margin and liability | Investors: back spec libraries and faithfulness audits over generic checkers. | 32% |
Counter: Peer review stays mostly unpaid; AWS checks in-house.
Formalizability sets the AI clock
| Order | Confidence | What happens | Your move | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A | Lean checks 78% of combinatorics, 14% of algebraic geometry | All: ask whether a machine can check your answers. | 90% |
| 2 | B | Software, chips, crypto and rules logic adopt first | Operators in formal domains: move now. | 63% |
| 3 | C | R&D tilts to formal problems; others keep moats longer | Investors: time bets by checkability, not by AI hype. | 32% |
Counter: Proof regimes adopt slowly; DO-333 went unacknowledged for five years.
Hour-billed analysis loses pricing power
| Order | Confidence | What happens | Your move | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B | $170B-430B of yearly R&D labour open to repricing | Operators: reprice your backlog of questions once too costly to investigate. | 70% |
| 2 | B | Sellers of analytical hours lose pricing power | Founders: sell outcomes or reusable datasets, not hours. | 49% |
| 3 | C | Outcome pricing and problem libraries win; junior pipeline thins | Investors: discount hour-billing multiples. | 25% |
Counter: Radiologist numbers and pay rose after 2016 predictions of decline.
Three chains reach 44% confidence. The scorer becomes the moat. Discovery stops being protectable. Suppliers turn into rivals.
Three reach 25% to 32%. Trust becomes a product, checkability sets each industry's clock, and hour billing weakens.
Cheaper research has raised research spend before. After AWS, Illumina and AlphaFold, margin moved to the next scarce step.
Which industries move first?
Ask whether a machine can check your answers. If yes, move now.
Industries whose answers a machine can check move first.
Lean checks 78% of combinatorics families but only 14% of algebraic geometry.
Fields a machine can check move first
Share of result families fully checked in Lean, by field. 372 families.
- Share fully Lean-checked
How to readLonger bars mean more of the field's results carry a machine check.
NoteFields close to software and chips score highest.
Sourceopenai/math lean/formalization.yaml, commit fd4aeeb; our grouping
All 3 withdrawals came from algebraic geometry, where Lean checks 5 of 36 families.
Industry works the same way. Tests, equivalence checkers and simulators play Lean's role.
Information technology and industrials can move now
All 12 sectors. Bars count pathway results; colour shows whether a machine can score answers.
- Scorer: yes
- Scorer: partly
- Scorer: no or not assessed
How to readTap a sector for its scorer, its horizon and one engine result.
NoteEngine results are vendor-reported and unaudited. Strategy and pricing lack a scorer everywhere.
SourceOur labels in data/cards.json; research lane A sector table
Information technology17yes
ScorerYes: tests, profilers, equivalence checks and simulators
HorizonNow; chips 1 to 3 years; quantum 3 to 10
EngineGoogle recovers 0.7% of compute; a Gemini kernel runs 23% faster
Industrials8yes
ScorerYes: routing and scheduling simulators
HorizonNow
EngineFM Logistic improved warehouse routing 10.4%
Health care7partly
ScorerSpeed yes, efficacy no; genomics has truth sets
HorizonCompute now; clinic 5 to 10+ years
EnginePacBio cut variant-calling errors 30%
Materials3partly
ScorerSpeed yes, efficacy no
HorizonCompute now; lab results later
EngineBASF reports planning models over 80% better
Communication services2partly
ScorerAds offline yes; telecom standards gate changes
HorizonAds now; telecom 5 to 10 years
EngineWPP reports 5% to 10% better response prediction
Consumer discretionary1partly
ScorerPartly: forecast backtests can drift
HorizonNow
EngineCoolblue improved forecasts 5%
Financials1partly
ScorerPartly: backtests overfit
HorizonNow, with many false positives
EngineMan Group runs dozens of AI-found live signals
Utilities1yes
ScorerYes: physics feasibility checks
Horizon1 to 3 years
EnginePower-flow feasibility rose from 14% to 88%
Consumer staples0partly
ScorerPartly: forecast backtests can drift
HorizonNo case found
EngineNone reported.
Energy0not assessed
ScorerNot assessed
HorizonNo case found
EngineNone reported.
Real estate0not assessed
ScorerNot assessed
HorizonNo case found
EngineNone reported.
Public sector0no
ScorerNo: no regulator publishes machine-checkable rules yet
HorizonNo case found
EngineNone reported.
Information technology and industrials can move now. Health care and materials gain speed, not efficacy.
Strategy, pricing and org design lack a coded scorer in every sector.
Hard-to-check incumbents may keep their moats longer than the hype implies.
Can I use these results?
Use the math freely. Log your team's contributions and file before you disclose.
Yes. Anyone may use, change and sell all of it.
- The math is free. Neither US nor European law lets anyone patent a mathematical result.
- The licence is open. Apache-2.0 allows copying, changing and selling.
- Publication blocks patents. The results are now prior art against anyone.
Correctness is your risk. Apache-2.0 ships the work "AS IS", with no warranty.
Your own AI-assisted work is harder to protect.
Can you use it, and can you patent your own work?
Answer up to three questions.
How to readPick an answer to see the next step. Start over at any time.
NoteEvidence, not legal advice.
SourceApache-2.0; USPTO inventorship guidance, 2025-11-28; EPO; 35 U.S.C. 102(b)(1)
- What do you want to do? Use the published results
yesGo ahead. Apache-2.0 lets you copy, change and sell. Check correctness yourself.
- What do you want to do? Patent my own AI-assisted work
- Did a person conceive a particular solution, beyond posing the problem? Yes
- Did you file before any paper, demo or open-source release? Yes
yesYou may hold a patent, if the idea is new. Keep your conception log.
- What do you want to do? Patent my own AI-assisted work
- Did a person conceive a particular solution, beyond posing the problem? Yes
- Did you file before any paper, demo or open-source release? No
noOutside the US, your own publication now blocks you. The US gives a one-year grace period.
- What do you want to do? Patent my own AI-assisted work
- Did a person conceive a particular solution, beyond posing the problem? No, the AI solved it
noLikely no lawful inventor. That means no patent in the US, UK, EPO or Germany.
Since 2025-11-28, the USPTO requires "a particular solution" for conception, not a research plan.
OpenAI's humans posed the problems, and the model wrote the solutions. Such output may have no inventor.
Publishing first blocks rival patents. In Europe it also blocks yours; the US allows one year.
A short founder checklist:
- Keep the licence. Ship a copy with any code or text you redistribute.
- Pin the version. Record commit fd4aeeb and check history.md for withdrawals.
- Log conception. Record the human's specific solution, the prompts and the human's changes.
- File before you disclose. File a provisional before any paper, demo or open-source release.
What should you do now?
Pick your seat. Start one action this quarter.
Founders, operators and investors each get a different first job.
Pick your seat
Four or five actions per seat, plus one move for each of 12 sectors.
How to readPick your seat, then your sector. Each action links to the chapter behind it.
NoteThese rest on medium- or low-confidence hypotheses.
SourceFindings memo v2, section 6
Founder
- Run the swarm test. Imagine a lab spends millions on your core problem. Would you still win? Why
- Build or buy the scorer first. Simulators, digital twins, test harnesses and truth sets are the asset. Why
- Sell verified output as its own tier. Price on outcomes, not hours. Why
- Keep dated conception records. Log the human's specific contribution. File before you publish. Why
Operator
- List your heuristic cost lines. Start with scheduling, routing, forecasting, kernels and placement. Why
- Run a portfolio. Expect 1 in 5 to 1 in 10 well-specified problems to pay. Why
- Budget for checking. Plan about half of an AI project's cost for it. Why
- Start with what you can buy. OpenAI's model is unreleased. Google rents out AlphaEvolve. Why
- Protect R&D prompts. Put them under zero-retention contracts. Why
Investor
- Reprice moats. Price scorers, proprietary data and regulated routes up. Discount publication leads. Why
- Demand receipts. Ask any "AI discovered X" claim for check status, prompts and failure rate. Why
- Rerun prior-art searches. Run an AI search on a target's patents before pricing them. Why
- Test optimisation pitches. Hold optimisation and quantum claims against the 12 proven limits. Why
All 36 sector moves
| Sector | Founder | Operator | Investor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Information technology | Your tests and benchmarks are the scorer. Rivals can rent the same search. | Point a search engine at kernels, schedulers and storage first. Gains land now. | Discount moats built on hand tuning. Price telemetry and benchmark assets up. |
| Industrials | Sell the routing or scheduling simulator, not only the optimiser on top. | Put routing and scheduling on a simulator, then search it. Expect 5% to 30%. | Thin margins pass gains to customers within 12 to 24 months. Back simulator owners. |
| Health care | Own a truth set or trial data. Faster compute alone wins no approval. | Search genomics pipelines and simulation speed now. Clinical gains still need trials. | Value compute speedups now. Value efficacy claims only after trials. |
| Materials | Pair fast simulation with your own lab loop. The lab is the moat. | Search planning and simulation models now. Lab confirmation still sets the pace. | Ask whether a claimed material survived the lab, not only the simulator. |
| Communication services | Ad models have offline scorers. Telecom changes wait on standards bodies. | Test ad response models offline first, then confirm with live A/B tests. | Expect ad gains now and telecom protocol gains in 5 to 10 years. |
| Consumer discretionary | Forecast gains drift with demand. Sell monitoring with the model. | Backtest forecasts, then re-check monthly. Coolblue reports a 5% gain. | Treat forecast gains as perishable unless the seller owns fresh demand data. |
| Financials | Backtests overfit. Sell out-of-sample verification, not more signals. | Hold every AI-found signal to a fresh out-of-sample test before committing capital. | Expect many false positives. Discount any signal without a live track record. |
| Utilities | Grid physics gives a hard scorer. Operators adopt slowly, so plan long sales cycles. | Search power-flow and dispatch problems against physics checks. Expect 1 to 3 years. | Time grid bets to operator adoption cycles, not to model releases. |
| Consumer staples | We found no AI-found gain here yet. Forecast backtests are the likely scorer. | Pilot one forecast problem with a backtest. Re-check it for drift. | No evidence yet. Ask for a dated, audited backtest before believing gains. |
| Energy | We did not assess energy. First ask whether a simulator scores your answers. | List the problems a plant or reservoir simulator already scores. Pilot one. | No evidence yet. Treat AI-discovery claims here as unproven. |
| Real estate | We found no case. Pricing problems rarely have a coded scorer. | Start with problems a simulator can score, such as scheduling. | No evidence yet. Treat AI-discovery claims here as unproven. |
| Public sector | Turn rules into code. Machine-checkable rules would open this sector. | Publish rules as tested code first. Search needs a scorer to work. | Back rules-as-code tooling. No regulator publishes machine-checkable rules yet. |
How sure are we?
Multiply the confidence on every link before you act on a chain.
We labelled all 372 families, then tried to break our own story.
Claude labelled every family, blind to our hand codes. It matched 41 hand codes 68% to 78% of the time.
A close read moved 11 of 25 families to no pathway
Label changes after deep reads of 25 pathway families. 18 families changed.
- Before
- After
How to readEach row shows a family's label before and after the close read.
NoteMost moves made labels stricter, never looser.
SourceOur deep reads, research/deep in the atlas repo
Close reads of 25 pathway families moved 11 to no pathway. One "fast" scheduler hides an exponent near 150,000.
Six research lanes traced the wider effects. Each rated every inference A, B or C.
Claims we will not make:
- "AI solved 9% of problems." OpenAI never defined the denominator.
- "Lean-checked, so correct." Lean checks the formal statement, not its match to the claim.
- "AI can now do R&D." The evidence covers checkable problems only.
- "Businesses can buy this today." OpenAI's model is unreleased. AlphaEvolve is the buyable analogue.
- "Zero business effect." Even worst-case costs leave AI about half the price, and Google already profits.
What experts said:
- Aaronson, on Unique Games: "we're pretty sure that it's a proof".
- Terence Tao urged mathematics to "decenter the role of raw problem solving".
- Kevin Buzzard: "We do not yet even know what is true."
- The Association for Human Mathematics urged mathematicians to stop working with OpenAI.
Credits
Claude was the primary labeller for all 372 families. Against 41 hand codes, it agreed 76%, 78% and 68% of the time. Those scores cover directness, time to market and mechanism.
The classifier TypeSafe Jev gave a second opinion. It labelled all 372 families for $0.038.
Six research lanes fed the business analysis. Each lists its sources, all accessed 2026-10-11.
- Private problems. AlphaEvolve and other deployments.
- Economics. Cost per result and past cost collapses.
- Verification. Lean coverage and buyers of proof.
- IP. Inventorship, prior art and patents.
- Labour and markets. Pay, talent and lab strategy.
- Red team. Objections and claims we will not make.
Source: github.com/openai/math at snapshot fd4aeeb, dated 2026-10-07. Data and labels live in the hanselhansel/openai-math-atlas repo.